Her honeymoon period is over. Mrs May faces a  2017 even more tumultuous than the last 12 months of chaos. 

The Prime Minister’s in-tray is so packed with warnings of future crises that vicar’s daughter May might be tempted to pray for divine intervention. Top of a worry list that keeps the PM awake at night is Brexit and how she will navigate Britain’s choppy departure from the European Union.

BREXIT STRATEGY
The first critical deadline is the end of March. By then, assuming that May honours a pledge on Andrew Marr’s BBC show in October, the UK will have triggered Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. That will start the formal Brexit negotiations, putting the UK on course to leave the EU by the summer of 2019.

As the deadline approaches, the PM will come under relentless pressure to expand on her mantra ‘Brexit means Brexit’ by explaining her exit strategy – something her critics believe is yet to be invented.

Unhelpfully for her, point-headed forecasters at the independent Office for Budget Responsibility have already started to put a price on quitting the EU. They reckon the bill will be an eye-watering £58.7 billion – or around half of the £122 billion in extra borrowing the Government will need over the next five years.

Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, is worried enough to be hinting about the need for a two-year transition period that would delay Britain’s exit from the EU until 2021. The urbane Canadian, who is determined to speak his mind on Brexit and its risks, is likely to be one of the key figures of 2017.

Most independent experts agree that, whatever happens, Brexit will mean higher inflation, slower growth and economic uncertainty that could hit consumer confidence. This is likely to effect voter confidence – a problem that could create a major headache for May this year.

GENERAL ELECTION?
The PM is acutely aware that, like Gordon Brown, she took over from her predecessor in Downing Street without the endorsement of the public at a general election.
‘If things go pear-shaped over Brexit, there will certainly be increasing pressure for Theresa to get a mandate from the public in the form of an election’, confides one May ally.

A former Conservative minister and May supporter adds: ‘Brexit poses a world of uncertainty. If it looks like there is trouble ahead, it makes sense to have an early election before the storm hits and leaves us in a terrible place for an election in 2020.’

Despite Number 10’s insistence that a snap election is not on the cards, bookmakers have slashed the odds of a 2017 poll. According to senior Whitehall insiders, the chance of May going to the country this year is ‘a distinct possibility’.

One reason cited by Conservatives who support an early election is that the prospect of elections across Europe mean Britons will have to wait for many months before they know who will be their sparring partners in the Brexit negotiations.

In France, the presidential elections get under way in April with former Prime Minister François Fillon and Marine Le Pen of the far-right Front National vying to see off the Socialist Party candidate. While, in Germany, the contest for a new president starts in February when Chancellor Angela Merkel will run for a fourth term at the most challenging period of her 11 years in power.

Another factor cited by Tories pushing for a snap election is the weakness of the Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn. Pollsters estimate the Conservatives could boost their fragile working majority of just 14 MPs in the House of Commons to more than 100 by holding an early election while Corbyn remains Labour leader. However, even Corbyn’s fiercest enemies within the Labour Party admit that a renewed attempt at toppling him won’t happen this year – unless he loses a snap general election.

Despite the departure of Tory Party chairman Andrew Feldman after David Cameron resigned, the hedge-funders and City financiers who bankrolled the party continue to pour cash into its coffers.

The Conservatives received big donations last year from Genii Capital co-founder Gerard Lopez who gave £400,000. Other big donors included mining tycoon Mick Davis, who handed over more than £260,000 and a former Tory Party treasurer, Alexander Fraser, who gave a similar sum. The cash puts the Tories on course to have a large war-chest in the event of a snap election, but it’s a different story for Labour which has seen many of its wealthy backers desert the party following the election of Jeremy Corbyn as leader.

The party is now largely reliant on donations from the big unions, particularly the cash from the Unite union leader, ‘Red Len’ McCluskey, as the tabloids love to characterise him. But more of Labour’s woes later.

WORKING WITH TRUMP
Without doubt, 2017 promises to be a year of seismic political change in Britain and across the globe, ranging across the political spectrum from the death of Cuban dictator, Fidel Castro, in November; to the inauguration of the United States’ 45th president, Donald J. Trump, in January. Indeed, the relationship between ‘The Donald’ and May over the coming months could define her premiership. Britain’s efforts to boost trade post-Brexit with the States will not be easy in the light of Trump’s strong ‘America First’ policy.

And, as hard as she tries, May will never be as welcome at the White House as UKIP’s former leader Nigel Farage who plans to spend a lot more time in the US this year in his hope of being Britain’s unofficial link man to the new president. However, Farage insists he will not be the backseat driver behind UKIP’s new leader.

One senior UKIP source said: ‘No one from the UK is better connected with Trump and his people than Nigel. The government should work out a way to capitalise on that.’ But, in response, one senior Conservative and May ally commented: ‘I think the PM would rather chew broken glass then have to deal with Farage.’

Meanwhile, UKIP’s new leader, shaven-headed Scouser Paul Nuttall, is plotting a campaign to snatch parliamentary seats from Labour in their Northern heartlands.

LABOUR FIGHT BACK?
An early test for both May and Corbyn’s Labour is likely to come in the form of a series of by-elections this year, triggered either by the deaths or resignations of sitting MPs, and whether they can stave off the threat from UKIP.

For Labour, it promises to be a tough year. Despite Corbyn’s popularity among Labour members, the party continues to struggle in the opinion polls. Privately, it seems some Labour MPs yearn for an early election as they believe it will give them a chance to replace their leader with someone more likely to boost Labour’s support.

Among the frontrunners, should there be a vacancy, would be former paratrooper Dan Jarvis, elected as an MP in Barnsley at a by-election in 2011, and Streatham MP Chuka Umunna. One wildcard entry could also see the return of Ed Balls, who is enjoying a new-found popularity after his jaw-dropping moves on Strictly Come Dancing.

However, the left-wing leanings of Labour’s activist base could mean Corbyn’s close ally, John McDonnell, or another left-wing MP might join the future leadership contest.
A key goal for Labour over the year ahead will be to try to regain the public’s trust when it comes to dealing with the economy, but as one Labour MP said: ‘John McDonnell seems to think everything can be paid for with some magic money tree. The public aren’t going to be fooled by that.’

The first economic test of 2017 for both Labour and the Tories will be Chancellor Philip Hammond’s Spring Budget. The Chancellor will be looking to dispel some of the gloom he cast with his last financial blueprint and his warnings about the cost of Brexit, while Labour will try to come up with a plan that voters find convincing.

It will also be a tough year for the Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron as he continues the Herculean task of trying to rebuild his party after a near wipe-out at the 2015 general election.

SHUFFLING HER CARDS
In the summer, May could carry out a reshuffle of her top team to reward loyalists, punish poor performance and bring on new talent.

Depending on their performance, the trio of cabinet ministers dubbed the ‘Three Brexiteers’ – Boris Johnson, Liam Fox and David Davis – could be at risk. In particular, International Trade Secretary Fox is not trusted by some of his fellow ministers. He resigned as Defence Secretary in 2011 over his working relationship with his friend and self-styled adviser Adam Wreath.

Whenever it comes, the prospect of a ministerial shake-up tends to keep politicians on their toes, especially ambitious members of the new intake of MPs in 2015. Among those tipped for future stardom are former army officer Johnny Mercer who attracted a legion of admirers after pictures of him half-naked, lathering himself in a shower gel advert emerged. Military man-turned Tory MP, Tom Tugendhat is another youngish gun widely respected by colleagues.

Apart from how she deals with Brexit and the 48% of the nation – derided by critics as ‘Removers’ – who wanted to remain in the EU, the other challenges stem from abroad.
There is the key issue of trying to cosy to an American president who has, so far, seemed distinctly unbothered by the advances of PM May who turned 60 in October.

PROBLEMS IN SYRIA
But Downing Street is also under intensifying pressure to intervene in Syria to stop the human misery in Aleppo. As one of the major factors in the surge in migrants trying to reach the UK, the problem of Syria is likely to dominate the agenda of Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson.

As the weather improves, thousands more migrants are likely to dice with death attempting the hazardous crossing of the Mediterranean, putting the spotlight once more on Britain’s migration policies.

Johnson will also have to turn his far-from-legendary diplomatic skills towards dealing with Russia and its increasingly muscular president, Vladimir Putin.
However, whatever happens with Britain’s negotiations with Putin and Trump, it’s hard to see anything but Brexit dominating the year ahead.

Over the next few months, May will have to come up with a plan that convinces MPs and voters that leaving the EU won’t make them worse off. As the Chancellor himself put it, no one voted on June 23 to be poorer or less secure.

With a new President in the States and the prospect of new leaders across Europe, politics is changing fast. By the time Theresa May embarks on her holiday, the world could look a very different place.

Everyone believed 2016 was the most turbulent year in global politics for decades. But the ride could be even rockier over the next 12 months. Brace yourself.